Open Access Article
Kun Xie
and
Haiqin Zhang
*
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China. E-mail: zhanghaiqin@lntu.edu.cn; Fax: +86-418-5110399; Tel: +86-418-5110399
First published on 11th December 2025
Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) are persistent organic pollutants that pose considerable threats to ecological and human health owing to their high toxicity potential. Understanding the mechanisms for underlying the base-catalyzed hydrolysis of PCDDs in aquatic environments is essential for assessing their environmental behaviour and ecological risks. Herein, we combined quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models with density functional theory calculations to analyse the base-catalyzed hydrolysis mechanisms of PCDDs. Among the four developed QSAR models, the single-parameter QSAR model based on the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energy (ELUMO) demonstrated the best performance, achieving a coefficient of determination of 0.89 and a root mean square error of 0.49, indicating superior overall performance. Results indicate that the second-order rate constants for base-catalyzed hydrolysis (kOH) of PCDDs are primarily influenced by ELUMO, molecular polarizability (α), molecular volume (Vm), degree of chlorination (NCl), and chlorine position. Specifically, increases in the α and Vm values of PCDDs lead to higher log
kOH values, while an increase in the ELUMO value results in a lower log
kOH value. This study investigates the relationship between the molecular structure and the rate of base-catalyzed hydrolysis of PCDDs, providing valuable insight into their environmental fate. Furthermore, this research offers a novel theoretical perspective on the base-catalyzed hydrolysis of PCDDs, which will aid in regulatory assessments and risk management.
Environmental significancePolychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) are highly toxic and persistent pollutants widely detected in aquatic environments, yet their degradation behaviour under alkaline conditions remains poorly understood. Understanding their base-catalyzed hydrolysis is crucial for predicting environmental fate and guiding remediation strategies. This study reveals how key molecular descriptors—particularly ELUMO, polarizability, and molecular volume—influence hydrolysis rates. Integration of QSAR modelling and quantum chemical analysis provides a predictive framework for assessing PCDDs degradability. These findings enhance mechanistic understanding of PCDDs reactivity and support environmental risk assessments and regulatory management of persistent organic pollutants. |
Organic compound hydrolysis is a crucial chemical process in the environment.12 Our recent research has identified base-catalyzed hydrolysis as the primary degradation pathway of PCDDs in aquatic environments. Initial findings suggest that the reactivity of PCDDs hydrolysis is influenced by position and quantity of chlorine atoms on PCDD congeners.13 Given that PCDDs have been detected in aquatic environments at concentrations as low as picograms per litre,14,15 even trace amounts raise concerns regarding their persistence and potential ecological impacts. However, the relationship between the rate of base-catalyzed hydrolysis and the specific molecular structures of PCDDs remains unclear, necessitating further investigation. Due to the time-consuming and labour-intensive nature of experimentally determining this relationship, it is impractical to examine each PCDD congener individually. Therefore, the development of a high-throughput model to evaluate the hydrolysis mechanisms of various PCDDs is essential.
Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models have primarily been utilised to investigate the toxicity,16 AhR binding affinity,17 bioconcentration and biodegradability of PCDDs.18,19 The robust scientific foundation of QSAR technology is predicated on the principle that similar chemical structures are likely to exhibit analogous chemical behaviours.20,21 Consequently, QSAR technology can beapplied to examine the relationship between the molecular structure and the base-catalyzed hydrolysis rate of PCDDs, as well as to analyse the mechanisms underlying their base-catalyzed hydrolysis. However, to date, no QSAR model for the base-catalyzed hydrolysis of PCDDs has been reported to date.
Herein, based on the second-order rate constants for base-catalyzed hydrolysis (kOH) of 75 PCDDs, calculated using quantum chemical methods, we utilised multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop four QSAR models. These models aim to explore the mechanisms underlying the base-catalyzed hydrolysis of PCDDs. Developed in accordance with the guidelines of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),20 and these models serve as a valuable tool for assessing the environmental persistence of organic chemicals.
:
1 ratio. For analytical purposes, the data were logarithmically transformed (log
kOH) and standardised to uniform units of mol−1 L h−1. The log
kOH values vary from a minimum of −4.28 mol−1 L h−1 (2-M1CDD) to a maximum of 3.39 mol−1 L h−1 (1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-O8CDD).
![]() | (1) |
kOH value for the i-th data point, y(−i)is the predicted log
kOH value for the i-th data point when the model is trained without this point, and y(−i)is the mean calculated log
kOH value of the remaining n – 1 data points, excluding the i-th data point.
![]() | (2) |
| hi = xiT(XTX)−1xi | (3) |
| h* = 3(D + 1)/n | (4) |
kOH as the dependent variable and the selected molecular structural parameters as predictor variables, resulting in four QSAR models, as shown in Table 1.
| No. | Equation | Radj2a | RMSEtrab | QLOO2c | Rext2d | RMSEext e | Qext2f |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a Adjusted determination coefficient.b The root mean square error on the training set.c Leave-one-out.d External determination coefficient.e The root mean square error on the validation set.f External explained variance. | |||||||
| 1 | log kOH = −10.15ELUMO − 4.01 |
0.89 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.49 | 0.89 |
| 2 | log kOH = 0.077α − 20.75 |
0.83 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 0.55 | 0.88 |
| 3 | log kOH = 0.114Vm − 17.61 |
0.82 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.48 | 0.91 |
| 4 | log kOH = 1.32 NCl − 0.48 Nβ + 0.37 Nm − 4.92 |
0.87 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 0.77 |
A single-parameter QSAR model (1) with ELUMO was developed to investigate the relationship between kOH and molecular structure of PCDDs. The values of the descriptors used in the QSAR model (1), along with the calculated and predicted kOH values, were listed in Table S2. High Radj2 and QLOO2 values of the training set indicated the goodness-of-fit and robustness of the model (1). The linear regression results of predicted versus calculated values for model (1) as well as the Williams plot representing the AD, are shown in Fig. 1. The data points from both the training and validation sets are evenly distributed on both sides of the reference line y = x, indicating that model (1) fit both datasets well. The AD analysis, shown in Fig. 1B, demonstrated the lack of outliers in the validation set, h < h*, and |δ| < 3.
As shown in Table 1, QSAR model (2) was developed to explore the relationship between kOH and α. The relevant data are presented in Table S3. The Radj2 and QLOO2 values of this QSAR model were 0.83 and 0.82, respectively, indicating high goodness-of-fit and good robustness of model (2). The differences (0.01) between the R2 and QLOO2 values was <0.3, indicating no over-fitting of model (2).30 Moreover, this model demonstrated acceptable predictability, with Qext2 = 0.88 and RMSEext = 0.55. The results of the linear fit of the model predictions compared to the calculated values and the Williams plot characterizing AD are presented in Fig. S2. The results of the AD characterization revealed |δ| <3 and h < h*(0.1), indicating that all PCDDs were within the AD.
Among geometric descriptors, Vm is generally used to develop QSAR models for the physicochemical properties of PCDDs,8,31 suggesting that Vm could provide a convenient first estimator of kOH values for PCDDs. According to Table S4, QSAR model (3) demonstrated strong predictive capabilities within the training and external validation sets. The close Radj2 = 0.82 and QLOO2 = 0.81 values for the training set, along with high Qext2 = 0.91 values and lower RMSEext = 0.48 values for the validation set, suggested that model (3) was well-fitted, robust, and had good external predictive ability. Fig. S3A demonstrates the correlation between predicted and calculated values for model (3), indicating the model's good predictive performance. The AD characterization (Fig. S3B) revealed that all PCDDs were within the AD, with no outliers. In the validation sets, there is a ‘good high leverage’ point (1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-O8CDD) with a higher than the warning h value of 0.1 and |δ| < 3, implying that the model (3) possesses some degree of extrapolating ability.29,32
PCDD congeners with the same number of chlorine atoms can display significantly different chemical and physical properties depending on the positions of the chlorine atoms attached to the parent structure.8 Therefore, different degrees of chlorination and chlorine atoms position is essential in understanding these differences. Three molecular descriptors (NCl, Nβ, and Nm) were included in the QSAR model (4), which demonstrated good fitting, robustness, and predictive capability. NCl was the most significant descriptor that negatively contributed to log
kOH (t = 10.722, P < 0.001). The variance inflation factor (VIF) values for each descriptor were less than 5, indicating the absence of multicollinearity between the descriptors. The p-values for all descriptors less than 0.05, demonstrating statistically significant contributions to the predictive power of model (4). The fitting results between the predicted and calculated values of the model (4) were good, as shown in Table S5 and Fig. S4A. Additionally, Fig. S4B, illustrates the AD characterisation of model (4), revealing |δ| < 3, which indicates no outliers (Table 2).
A comparison of the four models indicated that model (1), which ustilised ELUMO as a descriptor, demonstrated the best overall performance with the highest Radj2 (0.89) and Qext2 (0.89) values and lowest RMSEext (0.49) value. This finding suggests that electronic properties, specifically ELUMO, play a crucial role in the base-catalyzed hydrolysis mechanism of PCDDs. In practical applications, the choice of model should balance complexity, accuracy, and generalizability.33,34 Therefore, model (1) serves as a robust and reliable tool for the mechanism analysis of PCDDs, which is essential for understanding their environmental behaviour and potential impact.
Molecular polarizability is defined as the ratio of the induced dipole moment to the electric field that produces this dipole moment.39 Molecules with high polarizability possess electrons that can move relatively easily compared to those with low polarizability.40 Consequently, increased molecular polarizability enhances the likelihood of spatial electron distribution changes, which in turn increases reactivity towards nucleophiles or electrophiles.41,42 In base-catalyzed hydrolysis reactions, the electron clouds in PCDDs with higher α can move more easily. This phenomenon may contribute to a reduction in the stability of reactive sites, thereby decreasing the Gibbs free energies (ΔG‡) of reaction required for bond cleavage and ultimately enhancing the kOH. For instance, 1,2-D2CDD exhibits a polarizability of 233.387 a.u. and a ΔG‡ of 104.599 kJ mol−1, while 1,2,6-T3CDD has a polarizability of 248.523 a.u. and a ΔG‡ of 89.92 kJ mol−1. Thus, log
kOH is positively correlated with α.
According to the molecular structure of PCDDs presented in Fig. S1, Vm was positively correlated with the number of chlorine atoms in PCDD congeners (Vm = 10.559NCl + 109.414, R2 = 0.983). Therefore, a higher Vm value indicated a greater number of chlorine atoms, as the Vm value of PCDD congeners depends solely on the number of chlorine atoms.43 Due to their strong electronegativity, the electron density at the reaction site will decrease with an increasing number of chlorine atoms, resulting in a faster attack by OH− ions.42,44 Consequently, an increase in the Vm value is associated with an increase in the kOH value for PCDDs.
The QSAR model (4) in Table 1 demonstrated the effects of different degrees of chlorination and chlorine positions on the base-catalyzed hydrolysis rate of PCDDs. For examples, the electrostatic potential (ESP) distributions on the molecular surfaces of 2,7-D2CDD, 1,2,3,4-T4CDD, 1,2,3,6-T4CDD, 1,2,3,7,8,9-H6CDD, 1,2,4,6,8,9-H6CDD and 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-O8CDD were calculated to evaluate the relationship between constitutional descriptors (NCl, Nβ and Nm) and kOH of PCDDs. The results are presented in Fig. 2, with the blue regions indicating positive ESP (low electronic density), which OH− ions generally prefer to attack. According to Fig. 2, positive ESP values of PCDDs were primarily distributed at the Cγ position, increasing with the number of chlorine atoms. This finding aligned with the positive correlation between log
kOH and NCl in model (4), where a greater number of chlorine atoms enhanced the kOH value. For the PCDD congeners with the same NCl and Nm values, such as 1,2,3,7,8,9-H6CDD and 1,2,4,6,8,9-H6CDD, the former with a higher Nβ value exhibited a greater positive ESP than the latter with a lower Nβ value. For PCDD congeners with the same NCl and Nβ values, those with higher Nm values had a lower positive ESP, as seen with 1,2,3,4-T4CDD and 1,2,3,6-T4CDD. This finding indicated that variations in the number of Cβ position and paired meta-position chlorine atoms significantly affected the electron distribution of PCDDs with the same NCl values, leading to notable changes in their hydrolysis rates. Therefore, the size of the blue region was closely related to the number and position of chlorine atoms in PCDDs. This observation supported the relationship described in the model and explained the effects of the number of chlorine atoms, Cβ position chlorine atoms and paired meta-position chlorine atoms on the base-catalyzed hydrolysis rate of PCDDs.
![]() | ||
| Fig. 2 Electrostatic potential (ESP) distribution of PCDDs calculated at the M062X/6−31+ G(d,p)/SMD level. | ||
Previous researchers have developed QSAR models that investigate how structural and quantum chemical descriptors influence the reactivity of PCDDs with hydroxyl radicals. Yan et al. utilised partial least squares (PLS) regression to develop polyparameter linea free energy models that concentrate on the rate constants for gas-phase reactions of hydroxyl radicals with PCDDs and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs).45 Their findings indicated that electron-donating capacity, represented by descriptors such as EHOMO and qH+, was the primary factor affecting reaction rates. Likewise, Qi et al. employed MLR and found that EHOMO significantly influenced the reaction rate constant, while NCl played a critical role, independent of chlorine positions.46 Luo et al. uesd MLR and reported that the position of chlorination on PCDDs is a key determinant in the kinetics of hydroxyl radical oxidation kinetics.47 Furthermore, Chen et al. developed a model using PLS regression with structural descriptors to predict the photolysis rate constants of PCDD/Fs on cherry leaf wax layers.48 They discovered that PCDD/Fs with higher NCl and α values, along with lower ELUMO, exhibited faster photodegradation, which aligns with our hydrolysis model findings and highlights the significance of these descriptors in predicting the reactivity and environmental persistence of PCDDs. Therefore, our models build upon these findings, further emphasising the critical role of key descriptors such as NCl and α values in the hydrolysis reaction.
As illustrated in Table 3, we conducted a comparison of the models developed in this study with QSAR models created through MLR for hydrolysis rates of various organic compounds.49–52 All models were built using rigorous statistical algorithms and well-defined descriptors, consistent with our findings in Model (1). Berger et al. observed that the acid-catalyzed hydrolysis rate constants of sulfonylureas decreased significantly with increasing ELUMO values.49 Similarly, Xu et al. reported that phthalate esters with higher α values displayed a significant increase in the kOH of one side chain, corroborating with the findings of our model (2).51 Compared to these models, the current model offers more accessible descriptors, enhanced clarity and a larger dataset of 75 samples, thereby improving reliability and mitigating the risk of overfitting. This provides a simpler and more interpretable alternative to more complex models. Consequently, our model presents a more robust and interpretable framework for assessing the hydrolysis mechanism of PCDDs, utilising key descriptors while ensuring high predictive accuracy and simplicity. This makes it a valuable tool for evaluating the environmental persistence of PCDDs under base-catalyzed conditions.
| Model napb | Training set | Validation set | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radj2 | RMSEtra | QLOO2 | Rext2 | RMSEext | Qext2 | |||
| a n represents the number of chemicals in the data set.b p represents the total number of predictor variables. | ||||||||
| Bernhard et al. (1995) | 6 | 1 | 0.838 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wang et al. (2018) | 40 | 8 | 0.822 | 1.472 | — | — | — | — |
| Xu et al. (2019) | 23 | 3 | 0.865 | 0.389 | 0.801 | 0.925 | 0.311 | 0.840 |
| Xu et al. (2019) | 5 | 1 | 0.975 | 0.276 | 0.914 | — | — | — |
| Xu et al. (2021) | 24 | 3 | 0.842 | — | 0.729 | 0.919 | — | 0.843 |
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