Techno-Economic and Uncertainty Analysis of an Integrated Solar-Hydrogen Energy System for Institutional Decarbonization in Bangladesh

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental assessment of an integrated solar-powered green hydrogen system designed to decarbonize energy use at a large private university campus in Bangladesh. The research addresses the growing need for sustainable institutional energy solutions in developing South Asian regions, where rising electricity demand and diesel dependency contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. To bridge this gap, the study proposes a 6.25 MWp photovoltaic array coupled with a 5 MW Proton Exchange Membrane electrolyzer, targeting simultaneous fulfillment of on-site electricity demand (1,015 MWh/year) and transport fuel substitution (504,000 L diesel/year). A novel Unified Dual-Vector Institutional Architecture is introduced, integrating electricity and hydrogen systems using a Seasonal Demand Superposition approach to optimize system design within a 1–10 MW capacity range. Methodologically, the study advances system sizing accuracy through the introduction of a Solar Window Capacity Factor (95.3%), which corrects a 4.80× underestimation inherent in the conventional annual capacity factor (19.9%). A tropical grid-specific Energy Management System model, developed using 13 months of institutional operational data, demonstrates 98.5% autonomous reliability and achieves 42% energy cost savings during off-peak periods. Economic feasibility is evaluated using a co-product revenue-based Levelized Cost of Hydrogen framework, incorporating dual weighted average cost of capital scenarios and Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations across 12 variables). Results highlight concessional financing as a key enabler: the levelized cost decreases from $5.50 ± 0.70/kg at 8% WACC (with a net present value of −$7.23 million) to $3.09 ± 0.52/kg at 4% WACC (NPV −$0.23 million), significantly improving viability. An ISO-compliant lifecycle assessment reveals total emissions of 12,089 tCO₂e, with a carbon payback period of 8.17 years within a 20-year project lifespan and a net lifecycle reduction of 17,520 tCO₂e, corresponding to 59.2% emission reduction efficiency. The proposed methodologies offer a flexible and scalable framework for institutional adoption of green hydrogen systems, contributing both to decarbonization goals and to the broader transition toward sustainable energy systems in developing economies.