Climate change effects on seawater reverse osmosis desalination: an Australian case study

Abstract

Ocean acidification, rising sea temperatures, and changes in seawater composition are mainstream effects of climate change. Nevertheless, seawater desalination projects, plant designs, simulations, and experimental studies largely ignore these long-term effects. To address this challenge, here we report an extensive climate data analysis (1950 to 2100) and impacts on ionic balances, seawater pretreatments, and ultrafiltration – reverse osmosis systems (UF-RO) in an Australian context. By focusing on five main shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and five regions (Adelaide, Gold Coast, Perth, Sydney, and Victoria), we have quantified historical and possible future consequences for desalination. Specifically, we analysed changes in salinity contents, increasing CO₂ release through chlorine disinfection, and displayed the underperformance of some UF-RO systems in more pessimistic climate scenarios. This work demonstrates that desalination projects are not isolated from long-lasting climate shifts. Consequently, the ramifications of climate change must be considered for future desalination contracts.