Unlocking possibilities to transition to sustainable low-carbon liquid fuels – a perspective

Abstract

A global imperative to meet net-zero targets by 2050 places immense pressure on the transport sector, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon liquid fuels (LCLFs) offer a scalable solution for difficult to electrify or hydrogen-powered transport modes, such as heavy-duty freight, aviation, and shipping, due to their high energy density requirements and extended asset life. As “drop-in” replacements, LCLFs leverage diverse bio-based or synthetic feedstocks that are compatible with existing infrastructure, to minimise disruption and capital expenditure. This perspective examines the challenges inherent in scaling LCLF supply chains sustainably and cost-effectively. These include inelastic demand in heavy transport, constraints in feedstock availability and uneven refining capacity, and supply-side complexities like fragmented policy, inconsistent lifecycle emissions accounting, and stringent certification standards that limit blending. In assessing the readiness for LCLF among industries and countries we propose key aspects to unlock the potential of LCLF opportunities. We argue that scaling LCLF supply is a central driver for decarbonisation, requiring coordinated investment across all sustainable carbon sources, harmonised policy, and enhanced investment certainty. This integrated approach is essential to harness LCLFs' full potential for a resilient, low-carbon energy future.