A feasible methanol economy for a green future

Abstract

This study quantifies for the first time the methanol economy and includes environmental and cost perspectives toward viable configurations. We developed comprehensive prospective models projected for 2050 including methanol as a substitute for fossil fuels in road and maritime transport, and as a building block for aviation fuels and high-volume chemicals, with carbon sourced from fossil feedstock, biomass, biogas, and atmospheric CO₂. Biomass enables negative emissions at an estimated implementation cost of ca. 16 USD per person per month, comparable to today's expenditures on fuels and chemicals, but is constrained by availability and ecosystem impacts. Biogas enables net-zero, yet is also supply-limited. Together, these routes could cover only up to 45% of demand. Air-captured CO₂ hydrogenation to methanol provides (virtually) unlimited availability and significantly lower emissions while performing well even beyond climate change impacts, but its higher projected cost limits its immediate appeal despite rapid technological progress. Hybrid pathways could bridge these gaps. A bio + fossil mix (45% : 55%) emits only around 34% of a fossil-only system and is deployable today. Substituting fossil carbon with CO₂ then unlocks a fully renewable bio + CO₂ configuration achieving net-zero at an approximate cost of 32 USD per person per month, one order of magnitude lower than the cost of climate inaction and comparable to the cost of other technological roadmaps designed to implement the Paris Agreement but with greater emission reductions. Bio + fossil thus offers an advantageous transition, while advancing CO₂-to-methanol maturity is decisive for a fully renewable methanol economy. Moreover, a regional assessment indicates that emission reductions closely mirror the global average, achieveing net-zero under a bio + CO₂-based methanol economy. This work opens new avenues for technological portfolios based on methanol that could be optimised with region-specific data to combat climate change sustainably.