Boundaries for a global resilient energy transition

Abstract

This article discusses the challenges to a resilient energy transition. The power shortage in the Iberian Peninsula in 2025 illustrates the limitations of a resilient energy sector. To the best of our knowledge, the reason for the collapse of the Spanish electric grid has not been identified as a single system failure but was likely caused by a cascade of events that led to the instability of the grid (frequency) and the shutdown. Fortunately, the grid was restored within a day. A prolonged shortage could have had a massive impact, compromising the food supply, fresh-water supply and critical infrastructure (i.e. hospitals) for 60 million citizens since off-grid energy storage only covers short periods. Broader implementation of large energy storage could have been the key to stabilising the electric grids and preventing a shutdown. Hydrogen is promising for large energy storage to improve the safe operation/implementation of renewable energies/UNSDG7 (PV/solar/wind/hydropower) and may prevent a variation in power supply and grid stability. Considering the required scale-up for the infrastructure (UNSDG9 + 12) along with the essential role of academia/education (UNSDG4) as the fundamental keys for sustainability, these factors are limiting, and the requirements to enable a fast energy transition are alarming. Data on energy consumption and GHG emissions discussed here are exemplary for selected European countries (France/Germany/Portugal/Spain/Sweden/UK) and neighbouring Morocco/Africa. The countries’ strategies for the energy transition take into account different geographical/topological/natural/climatic limitations and opportunities. We have learnt from this blackout and previous events that the number and capacities/connectivity to neighbouring countries are crucial for blackout prevention and that implemented energy storage is important to stabilise the electric grid but remains insufficient for net-zero based on renewable energies. Islands, countries with large coastal regions or isolated countries (mountains) with limited connectivity to neighbouring grids are more sensitive to blackouts. National strategies need to consider the societal/industrial requirements to enable a net-zero transition. The assessment targets defossilisation for energy supply/transport, the requirements for the energy sector and large energy storage facilities (i.e. H₂ storage) and national infrastructures for its realisation. The goal of net-zero-by-2050 is challenged by natural resources, and delays are due to the limited infrastructure/workforce in the STEM field provided by the respective national education and academic sectors.