Adverse outcome pathway-informed machine learning for predicting vascular toxicity of emerging organic pollutants

Abstract

Emerging organic pollutants (EOPs) are increasingly detected in wastewater and pose potential vascular toxicity risks that remain inadequately assessed in current regulatory frameworks. This study developed an adverse outcome pathway (AOP)-informed machine learning approach to evaluate vascular toxicity for 312 EOPs. By integrating ToxCast high-throughput bioassay data with Morgan fingerprints, we trained fourteen multilayer perceptron (MLP) models targeting key events in AOP 509, including Nrf2 inhibition, oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, apoptosis, endothelial impairment, and angiogenesis disruption. Our optimized models achieved high predictive accuracy (70–95%), enabling activity classification for both tested and untested chemicals. The predicted activation profiles prioritized chemicals such as ketoconazole, sertraline, and miconazole, with literature evidence supporting their vascular toxicity potential. This AOP-guided modelling framework demonstrates how integrating mechanistic pathways with machine learning can inform chemical risk assessment and prioritization, supporting hazard evaluation and environmental decision-making for pollutants with limited toxicological data.