Modelling and predicting real-world lifetime of perovskite–silicon tandem solar cells using advanced energy yield models with degradation kinetics

Abstract

Long-term stability of the perovskite top cell remains a hurdle to commercializing perovskite–silicon tandem (PST) solar cells. While accelerated tests provide valuable insights into degradation kinetics, they fail in predicting real-world degradation behavior. Keeping stressors constant, accelerated tests neglect dynamic conditions in actual operational environments, like diurnal and seasonal temperature and irradiance variability. We address this challenge by integrating a degradation function into our energy yield (EY) modelling software which integrates degradation in collection efficiency (and thus photocurrent) over time due to light and heat exposure, bridging the gap between accelerated testing and in real-world stability assessment. By linking the EY model to measurable material parameters like activation energy governing degradation pathways, this approach enables physically grounded degradation modelling. Based on degradation observed under accelerated tests, the model predicts PST operational lifetimes in diverse climates, highlighting the substantial discrepancy between lifetimes measured under accelerated testing and real-world locations. Applied to a PST solar cell, we show that an operational lifetime (T_90,Agg) of about 1400 h under ISOS-L2 (1 Sun, 85 °C), translates to several months in-field (about 26 months in arid Phoenix and 42 months in temperate Seattle), demonstrating strong climate dependence. We also provide a practical mapping from ISOS-L2 to real-world lifetimes and estimate the minimum stability threshold needed for deployment as around 4000 h T_90,Agg under ISOS-L2, translating to more than 5 years of operation across the investigated locations. After device-specific parameterization from appropriate aging tests, this device-agnostic framework allows stability-aware EY modelling to predict real-world degradation.