Opportunities and challenges for the expansion of LFP battery supply chains

Abstract

Global markets for energy storage are growing rapidly, with some applications transitioning from traditional LiNi_xMn_yCo_1−x−yO₂ (NMC) toward LiFePO₄ (LFP) due to cost, safety, and performance advantages. Battery growth has seeded interest in critical material supplies such as high-purity lithium precursors. In contrast, challenges in securing high-purity iron and phosphorus, historically not considered critical materials, are often overlooked. Precursors must remain inexpensive to maintain LFP's current cost advantage, which leverages the low-cost (∼$100 per t) FeSO₄ byproduct from titanium dioxide manufacturing and will not be available as LFP manufacturing expands. As an alternative, iron is mined primarily for steel manufacturing, for which the existing supply chain and beneficiation process is optimized. LFP batteries require small iron volumes compared to steel (0.11%), but profit margins associated with existing low-cost iron ores and high costs (∼$27 000 per t) associated with low volume high-purity iron oxides may limit interest in manufacturing small volumes of high-purity, specialized iron battery precursors. The complementary LFP precursor, phosphoric acid (H₃PO₄), is primarily utilized in fertilizers. Of the current phosphate ore demand for fertilizers, 4–22.8% would be required to meet projected 2045 LFP H₃PO₄ demand, suggesting significant supply chain planning is needed to achieve projected demand. If only higher-grade material is considered, demand jumps to 15–77% of current world production. While lithium precursor purity requirements have been evaluated (Li₂CO₃ is commonly defined as ≥99.5%), “battery grade” iron and phosphorus precursors remain poorly defined, with no internationally accessible and widely adopted standard, further challenging expanding industry by creating manufacturing uncertainty and increasing potential costs.