Air Pollution in the Shadow of Global Crises: Lessons from a Small City in the Western Balkans

Abstract

This study investigates how energy disruption, stemming from COVID-19 pandemic impacts, geopolitical instability, and rapid energy transitions, shaped air quality outcomes in Kičevo, a small city in the understudied pollution landscape of the Western Balkans. The research analyses a five-year dataset from 2019-2023, encompassing the concentration of atmospheric pollutants (CO, NO 2 , O 3 , SO 2 , PM 10 , and PM 2.5 ) and meteorological parameters, to elucidate the complex interactions between emission sources, meteorological conditions, and anthropogenic activities. The air quality data were deweathered using a machine learning method to isolate the effects of emission sources from meteorological influences. The findings reveal significant variations in pollutant concentrations, with notable anomalies observed in 2020 and 2022. These anomalies were primarily driven by elevated activities in both near and distant power plants in the area, corresponding to shifts in energy production and consumption linked to the COVID-19 crisis. Another contributing factor was the reopening of lignite power plants in neighbouring Greece, undertaken due to instability in renewable energy supply. Greece's strategy of rapidly transitioning to renewables and natural gas proved premature given the lack of adequate storage capacity, leading to a fall-back reliance on fossil fuels as a back-up plan. The study highlights the impact of socio-economic factors, particularly the substantial demographic declines due to emigration, on reduced emissions from local sources such as residential heating and transportation.