Quantitative sustainability assessment of e-fuels for maritime transport

Abstract

Reducing the carbon intensity of maritime transport is essential to achieve global emission reduction targets. Electro-fuels (e-fuels) represent a promising cleaner alternative to conventional marine fossil fuels, offering potential lifecycle greenhouse gas reductions when synthesised from renewable electricity and low-carbon feedstocks. While techno-economic and environmental assessments of e-fuels exist, their broader sustainability implications, spanning technological, economic, environmental and safety factors together, remain largely unexplored. This study introduces a quantitative framework to assess the sustainability of ship fuel systems that integrates key performance indicators (KPIs) across these four areas. A case study is conducted to compare the sustainability of carbon-based e-fuels (e-methanol and e-diesel) and carbon-free e-fuels (hydrogen and ammonia) against marine diesel oil (MDO) under multiple decision-making perspectives. The robustness of the overall sustainability-based ranking of fuel alternatives, as derived under each perspective, against uncertainties in the individual KPIs is confirmed via sensitivity analysis. Environmental and safety aspects are found to be critical in comparing the sustainability of alternative fuels. Both e-methanol and e-diesel achieve higher overall sustainability than MDO, irrespective of the decision-making perspective. Ammonia and hydrogen are hindered by safety concerns in the short term, although ammonia also shows long-term potential for sustainable shipping subject to appropriate risk management and the implementation of inherently safer design measures. Overall, the proposed framework enables a comprehensive assessment of alternative fuel systems for cleaner shipping, guiding future sustainability-driven policy and technology development.