Observational evidence of the impact of electric vehicles on local air quality in the United States

Abstract

Replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles with battery electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to impact air quality. Previous projections, often relying on emissions inventories of precursors with high uncertainties, have yielded results that vary by model parameters and assumptions. There remains little empirical investigation of the real-world effects, particularly for the low yet growing levels of electrification in the United States. Here county-level vehicle registrations and measurements from ground-level air monitors from 2018 through 2023 were used to investigate the impacts of EV penetration on annual and seasonal concentrations of criteria air pollutants in the United States. Fixed effects regression analysis revealed that rising EV penetration was associated with reductions in mean annual concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x as the sum of NO₂ and NO), carbon monoxide (CO), and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and in mean summer season concentrations of ozone (O₃). By contrast, there was a potential increase in sulfur dioxide (SO₂). The findings demonstrate empirical improvements in air quality associated with EV adoption yet highlight the risk of a continued reliance on fossil fuels. Strategic policies that support enhanced EV adoption must support commensurate expansion of renewable energy access in order to maximize the air quality benefits of the technology.