Global assessment of offshore floating photovoltaics: technical potential, cost-competitiveness, and deployment pathway

Abstract

Offshore floating photovoltaic (OFPV) systems present a promising opportunity to expand global solar energy capacity, particularly for countries with limited land resources but extensive maritime zones. Despite the vast potential—given that oceans cover over 70% of the Earth's surface—OFPV deployment remains nascent, hindered by technological, environmental, and economic challenges. This study addresses the current gap in global OFPV potential assessments by integrating key geographic, climatic, and economic datasets. Potential OFPV energy output has been modelled using various panel tilt and tracking configurations, while system costs and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are estimated globally within territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. The analysis reveals that up to 95% of analyzed offshore regions fall within conditions suitable for current FPV technologies, with Southeast Asia—particularly Indonesia and Malaysia—emerging as optimal early deployment zones due to favorable irradiance, bathymetry, and competitive LCOE. Additionally, results suggest that in 84% of regions, less than 2% of available offshore water surface is sufficient to meet their current electricity demands. Moreover, in 53% of the analyzed regions, the FPV water area required to satisfy the electricity demand corresponds to an LCOE below 15 USDc per kWh, underscoring OFPV's potential cost competitiveness. As OFPV remains an emerging technology, it is expected that continued research and operational experience will enable optimization across manufacturing, system integration, and deployment, leading to further cost reductions over time. The findings offer critical insights for policymakers and developers to strategically prioritize OFPV deployment, supporting a more resilient and decentralized global energy transition.