Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China’s 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs

Abstract

The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is vital for mitigating climate change, yet plans to transition China are generally coarsely resolved. This study introduces the China New Energy Database, offering the first 10-km resolution feasibility ranking for wind and solar installations across China. By incorporating land-use regulations and construction constraints, we present an optimized development pathway from 2022 to 2060. Our results highlight substantial climate and economic benefits of renewable energy deployment, with wind and solar energy reducing up to 16.9 billion tons of carbon emissions and generating 13.8 trillion CNY economic benefits by 2060. Regions with abundant renewable resources show significant potential for economic gains, demonstrating that reasonable strategic deployment could effectively “turn resources into gold”. These insights serve as a valuable reference for countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in their transition to renewable energy, contributing to global progress in sustainable energy systems. [150 words]