The electric vehicle transition

Abstract

Automobiles are the main sources of pollution; decarbonization of road transport is a major objective around the world. The electric vehicle (EV) technology is mature and somehow competitive with the development of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Affordability, performance, and the range are the first criteria that attract drivers to invest in EVs. Countries with the same objective of EVs to represent 100% of new registrations witness different progress, depending on the context and policy, and Norway and Iceland are currently leading. Countries with the highest EV penetration are almost systematically those with the highest cost of ownership of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and those with most important subsidies. In this paper, the interplay between context, policy, and technology to drive EV transition is presented. Acquisition and operation cost, a combination of technology and policy, represent the factors that will guarantee the sustainability of EVs as the next generation of vehicles. For EVs to be more affordable it will largely depend on battery cost. Batteries are key in the performance, reliability, competitiveness, acquisition, and operation cost of EVs. Despite the undeniable progress, for EVs to match the performance of ICE vehicles in the range and lifespan, current battery technology needs to be improved. As novelties introduced in this field, along with a non-subsidy approach to the development of EVs, in this paper an upgraded diffusion model of EV technology based on the traditional S-curve is presented. An analysis of a potential secondhand market that is necessary to guarantee a full and sustainable EV transition is also presented.