The assessment is presented here in full. We hope that publication in this scientific journal will give it a wide readership. As editors and panel members, we also hope that it will help keep scientists aware of their involvement in the protection of the environment for all forms of life on Earth.
Keith R. Solomon
Janet F. Bornman
The cover illustrates the extreme levels of UV radiation that could have occurred if CFCs and other compounds had not been regulated by the Montreal Protocol. The figure compares the UV index in October 1975 (top) with corresponding values for this “world avoided” on the right, and our “expected future” on the left in October 2015 and 2055. The UV index is calculated from ozone levels simulated using a coupled chemistry climate model of the atmosphere. The model not only predicts ozone levels, but also changes of atmospheric temperatures and winds. The “world avoided” is simulated using a scenario in which ozone depleting substances (ODSs) increase 3% per year beginning in 1974 (Velders et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 2007, 104, 4814), while the “expected future” is simulated with observed ODS levels to 2006 and then projected decreases of ODSs through the remainder of the century (scenario Ab from WMO, 2003). The simulations are described in Newman et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2009, 9, 2113. The calculation of UVI is for cloudless skies at noon, with no aerosols.
• Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Sweden
• South China Normal University, China
• EC Integrated Project SCOUT-O3 (contract 505390-GOCE-CT-2004), Greece
• The Japanese Ministry of the Environment, Japan
• National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA), New Zealand
Dr Pedro J. Aphalo; Dr Amy T. Austin; Dr Germar Bernhard; Dr Marianne Berwick; Prof. Wolfgang Bilger; Dr Natalia Chubarova; Dr Thomas P. Coohill; Dr Sandra L. Cooke; Dr Susana Diaz; Prof. Brian Diffey; Prof. Nils Ekelund; Dr Auroop R. Ganguly; Dr Kunshan Gao; Dr W. D. Grant; Dr R. Elizabeth M. Griffin; Prof. Michaela Hegglin; Prof. Dag Hessen; Dr Rainer Hofmann; Dr Marcel A. K. Jansen; Prof. Jennifer Y. King; Dr Margaret Kripke; Prof. G. Kulandaivelu; Dr Shaoshan Li; Prof. Lawrence E. Licht; Dr Kevin K. Newsham; Dr Madan Pal; Dr Barrie M. Peake; Dr Norma D. Searle; Prof. Günther Seckmeyer; Dr Anna Maria Siani; Dr Rajeshwar Sinha; Dr Harry Slaper; Prof. Ruben Sommaruga; Dr J. Richard Soulen; Dr Johannes Stratmann; Dr Åke Strid; Prof. Hugh R. Taylor; Dr Anssi Vähätalo; Dr John Wargent; Dr Ann R. Webb; Prof. Huixiang Xie.
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