Environment: challenges and opportunities

Robert T. Watson

Robert T. Watson’s career evolved from a research scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory: California Institute of Technology, to a US Federal Government program manager/director at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), to a scientific/policy advisor in the US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), White House, to a scientific advisor, manager and chief scientist at the World Bank, to a Chair of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, the Director for Strategic Direction for the Tyndall Centre, and Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. In parallel to his formal positions he has chaired, co-chaired or directed international scientific, technical and economic assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion, biodiversity/ecosystems (the GBA and MA), climate change (IPCC) and agricultural S&T (IAASTD). His areas of expertise include managing and coordinating national and international environmental programs, research programs and assessments; establishing science and environmental policies—specifically advising governments and civil society on the policy implications of scientific information and policy options for action; and communicating scientific, technical and economic information to policymakers. During the last twenty years he has received numerous national and international awards recognizing his contributions to science and the science-policy interface, including in 2003—Honorary “Companion of the Order of Saint Michael and Saint George” from the United Kingdom.

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There is little doubt that the Earth's environment is changing on all scales from local to global, in large measure due to human activities. The climate is warming at a rate faster than at any time during the last 10 000 years, biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, fisheries are in decline in most of the world's oceans, air pollution is an increasing problem in and around many of the major cities in the world, large numbers of people live in water stressed or water scarce areas, and large areas of land are being degraded. Much of this environmental degradation is due to the unsustainable production and use of energy, water, food and other biological resources and is already undermining efforts to alleviate poverty and stimulate sustainable development, and worse, the future projected changes in the environment are likely to have even more severe consequences.

The major indirect drivers of change are primarily demographic, economic, sociopolitical, scientific and technological, and cultural and religious. These drivers are clearly changing: the world's population and the global economy are growing, there are major changes in information technology and biotechnology, and the world is becoming more interdependent. In the future, developing countries will increasingly drive global economic growth. By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy will stem from developing countries. Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained over the next 25 years could significantly reduce global poverty. At the same time, it must be recognized that the benefits from growth and globalization could be undermined by a failure to properly manage global environmental issues, especially reducing the loss of biodiversity, and mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Economic growth and poverty alleviation require accelerated access to modern energy sources. Unfortunately, the current heavy dependence on fossil fuels causes health and productivity losses due to local and regional pollution and alteration of the world's climate, with the land and oceans warming, changing precipitation patterns, increasing sea level, melting of ice and snow, melting mountain glaciers, loss of Arctic sea ice, and more extreme weather events. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are already being affected by regional changes in climate. The Earths climate is projected to continue to change and at a faster rate than during the last century, adversely affecting freshwater, food and fiber, ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems. While developed countries remain the largest emitters of greenhouse gases today, the growth of carbon emissions in the next decades will come primarily from developing countries, especially China and India, which are following the same energy and carbon intensive development path as did their rich counterparts. Consequently, the challenge is to provide access to affordable clean energy, i.e., a transition to a low carbon economy.

Equally important is the condition of ecosystems, which affect human well-being directly through the supply of goods and services, such as food, timber, water purification, and climate stabilization, and indirectly through impacts on poverty, health, livelihood security, and economic development. Enhancement of the goods and services provided by ecosystems tend to have multiple and synergistic benefits, but little of this potential is being used today. Indeed, throughout the world, the capability of many ecosystems to provide food, clean water, flood control, and other services is being diminished, because of conversion of natural habitats, over-exploitation, pollution, introduction of exotic species and climate change, which are in some instances causing tremendous harm to both people and the environment.

However, an unprecedented opportunity exists to improve human well-being and accelerate progress towards sustainable development through a transition to a low carbon economy and better management of the world's living ecosystems.

Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations as low as 450 ppm CO₂-eq, which could limit changes in global mean surface temperature to 1.5–3 °C above pre-industrial levels, can be achieved by deployment of currently available technologies and those expected to be commercialized in the coming decades in the energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forests and waste management sectors, but a mix of policy instruments and incentives will be required to realize most of this potential. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030 include, carbon capture and storage, advanced nuclear power and renewable energy (e.g., tidal and wave energy), second generation biofuels, advanced electric and hybrid vehicles, and integrated design of commercial buildings. However, governments and the private sector must invest more in energy R&D to deliver low greenhouse gas technologies. At least US$20 trillion is required for energy infrastructure investments between now and 2030. Investment decisions will determine emissions from the energy sector. Returning global energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a major shift in investment patterns, but initial estimates suggest that the net additional investments range from negligible to 5–10%

Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low greenhouse gas products, technologies and processes, including economic instruments, regulation (e.g., standards) and government funding and tax credits. The costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are reduced through international trading and adopting a multi gas/multi sector strategy, hence reducing the financing needed to transition to a low carbon economy. A viable carbon market with a flow of funds to developing countries of tens of billions of dollars per year could be stimulated by a long-term stable global and equitable regulatory framework, involving all major emitters, limiting changes in the global mean surface temperature to about 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Integrating climate policies into broader development policies would facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors and regions over the coming decades. By 2030, 5–7 GtCO₂-eq annual emissions could be avoided by implementing measures, such as regulations and standards that will save money, through improved end-use energy efficiency. Near-term health benefits from reduced air pollution associated with the transition to low-carbon technologies may offset a substantial fraction of the mitigation costs. In addition, there may be other benefits, e.g., energy security and balance of trade improvements.

In order to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions would have to peak and decline thereafter—the lower the stabilization level the more quickly this peak and decline would need to occur. Delaying action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be costly by locking in high carbon pathways, thus making it more difficult and expensive to reduce emissions in the future, as well as creating higher risks of severe climate change impacts.

In addition, to mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases, it will be essential to adapt to climate change. Failure to effectively mainstream adaptation to increasingly severe weather patterns and climate variability into development activities is a major threat to poverty alleviation. The impacts will be significant especially in developing countries. Failure to adapt could exacerbate existing social and environmental problems and lead to significant shocks to the economy as well as forced migrations both within nations and cross borders. Resources for compensation that are additional to ODA will need to be found by donors to compensate for the increased development costs and increased damages due to climate variability while developing governments will need to reassess policies and institutional structures to be proactive in reducing climate vulnerability.

Major changes in both public and private investment strategies are needed. Recent analyses suggest that 20% to 40% of ODA and public concessional finance (i.e. $20B to $40B per year) is subject to climate risk and only a small portion currently analyze this risk in project planning. While current financial instruments are technically adequate to respond to the challenge of achieving climate resilient development, the amounts of money flowing through these instruments need to be substantially increased. Issues requiring immediate work include an analysis of institutional barriers to mainstreaming adaptation into development planning and the need for new standards for infrastructure and procedures for planning. New insurance related instruments are likely to play a major role in this, including weather index insurance for activities by farmers, and risk pooling arrangements, such as the Global Index Insurance Facility.

Addressing the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem services requires changing the economic background to decision-making. There is a need to: (i) make sure that the value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when making decisions; (ii) remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy that cause harm to people and the environment; (iii) introduce payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in ways that protect ecosystem services, such as water quality and carbon storage, that are of value to society; and (iv) establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way.

There is also a need to improve policy, planning, and management by integrating decision-making between different departments and sectors, as well as international institutions, to ensure that policies are focused on protection of ecosystems. It will require: (i) empowering marginalized groups to influence decisions affecting ecosystem services, and recognize in law local communities' ownership of natural resources; (ii) restoring degraded ecosystems and establishing additional protected areas, particularly in marine systems and providing greater financial and management support to those that already exist; and (iii) using all relevant forms of knowledge and information about ecosystems in decision-making, including the knowledge of local and indigenous groups

Success will depend on influencing individual behavior, thus it will be critical to provide access to information about ecosystems and decisions affecting their services, provide public education on why and how to reduce consumption of threatened ecosystem services, and by establishing reliable certification systems to give people the choice to buy sustainably harvested products. It will also be important to develop and use environment-friendly technologies, thus requiring investments in agricultural science and technology aimed at increasing food production with minimal harmful trade-offs

In summary, we are changing the Earth's climate and spending Earth's natural capital, putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. However, the future is not pre-ordained. Business as usual will lead to an unsustainable world with significant changes in the Earth's climate and a loss of critical ecosystem services. Cost-effective technologies, supported by an appropriate policy framework, can lead to more sustainable practices. Progress requires political will and moral leadership in the public and private sectors. The actions of today's generation will profoundly affect the Earth inherited by our children and future generations. Policymakers should recognize that there is no dichotomy between economic growth and environmental protection, and that addressing issues such as climate change provides economic opportunities to restructure and make a more efficient energy system, and can provide additional benefits, such as reducing local and regional air pollution, with positive implications for human health. Similarly, the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity can have significant economic and social benefits.

Unless we act now to limit human-induced environmental degradation, history will judge us as having been complacent in the face of compelling scientific evidence that humans are changing the Earth's environment with predominantly adverse effects on human health, ecological systems and socio-economic sectors. Do we really want our heritage to be that of sacrificing the Earth's biodiversity for cheap fossil fuel energy, ignoring the needs of future generations, and failing to meet the challenge of providing energy in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner when so many choices were available? Leaders from government and industry must stand shoulder to shoulder to ensure that the future of the Earth is not needlessly sacrificed.

Science and technology will play a critical role, with development increasingly dependent on a country's ability to understand, interpret, select, adapt, use, transmit, diffuse, produce and commercialize scientific and technological knowledge in ways appropriate to its ambitions and level of development. Over the last 10 years, the Journal of Environmental Monitoring has played a critical role in bringing state of the art knowledge to the scientific community and decision-makers. I look forward to JEM continuing to play this role—congratulations to JEM on a successful first decade.

Robert T. Watson

Director of Strategic Development, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

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