Decentralised production of e-fuels for aviation: implications and trade-offs of a targeted small-scale production of sustainable aviation fuel based on Fischer–Tropsch synthesis

Abstract

The introduction of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to play an important role in the decarbonisation of the aviation sector. Particularly for intercontinental flights, there is currently no near-term alternative to replacing fossil-based kerosene with sustainable liquid fuels. The current supply of conventional jet fuel is highly centralised through production at large-scale refineries. In light of future SAF production, there are also ongoing research activities and pilot projects focusing on small modular production technologies. This enables a decentralised fuel production, which could lead to a systemic shift in the current fuel supply infrastructure and value chains by enabling direct integration of renewable energy and fuel production in remote regions. To better understand the potential systemic role and relevance of such fuel production in the future energy system, we evaluate the process conditions and product costs of a decentralised Fischer–Tropsch based SAF production with maximised kerosene output as the only product of interest. The requirements for the product composition assumed in this study are particularly relevant and result in a reduced electrical plant efficiency of 35%. Compared to centralised production, the lower achievable electrical plant efficiency is compensated by a reduction of the indirect plant costs for modular units. The decentralised net production costs (NPC) of kerosene result in around 4.50 € per l in the baseline scenario, and between around 3.20 € per l and 6.15 € per l taking into account a variation of the assumptions. For a 2050 scenario, we evaluate NPC of 2.00 € per l, with a high confidence of ending up between 1.50 € per l and 2.75 € per l, considering the uncertainty assessment.