Rahamim
Batten
a,
Mukund
Karanjikar
b and
Sabrina
Spatari
*ac
aFaculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003, Israel. E-mail: ssabrina@technion.ac.il
bTechnology Holding, Salt Lake City, UT 84119, USA
cGrand Technion Energy Program, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003, Israel
First published on 20th March 2024
Biomass is a promising renewable feedstock for conversion to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to mitigate near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Through metabolic engineering, sugars derived from pretreated and hydrolyzed cellulose and hemicellulose can be directly fermented to isoprene and catalytically upgraded to 1-4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), an environmentally beneficial and high performance alternative to petroleum-based jet fuel. Cellulosic sugars may allow for greater GHG emission reduction compared to first generation sugars and meet scaling needs to reduce dependence on petroleum-based kerosene. Here, we assess the environmental impact and economic feasibility of utilizing direct isoprene fermentation from residual biomass sugars as an intermediate step in the production of DMCO via life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA). We use chemical process modeling to simulate the conversion of sugars from biomass to isoprene, dimerization to dimethylcyclooctadiene (DMCOD) and catalytic hydrotreatment to DMCO. The bottom-up process model serves as the basis for constructing the life cycle inventory to assess environmental impacts and to predict economic feasibility. Results show a GHG intensity of 7.2 gCO2e MJ−1 that is significantly lower than that of current petroleum jet (89 gCO2e MJ−1) when using Zea mays L. residue (corn stover) as feedstock. The TEA indicated that the target costs have the potential to be competitive with a minimum fuel selling price of DMCO between $1.01 and $1.32 per L. Direct fermentation of isoprene could improve the overall process efficiency and reduce energy consumption, while also enhancing the environmental sustainability of the process.
Lignocellulose is an abundant, renewable and sustainable resource that does not compete with the food chain and includes agricultural waste, forest residues, and woody biomass.3–6 Many countries around the world have adopted low carbon and renewable fuel standards that target biofuels as part of their energy policies to mitigate GHG emissions from their transportation sectors.7 Those policies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to benchmark candidate fuels having an average fuel carbon intensity (AFCI), which measures GHG emissions in gCO2e MJ−1, below that of a petroleum-based fuel. As an example of such a policy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, through its Renewable Fuel Standard,8 aims to achieve at least a 60% reduction in the AFCI of cellulosic fuels, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq.) relative to a baseline petroleum fuel. For aviation, international standards developed through the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) define criteria for SAF-eligible drop-in fuels as requiring at least a 10% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions compared to emissions from a baseline petroleum jet-fuel set at 89 gCO2e MJ−1.9 CORSIA has certified many biofuel pathways originating from first generation feedstocks made from edible crops and second generation (lignocellulosic) feedstocks that all meet SAF eligibility criteria. The lignocellulosic feedstocks have potential to achieve the lowest AFCI among certified SAFs. This is owing to them having low GHG emissions during feedstock cultivation and harvesting stages and no or minimal land use change (LUC) GHG emissions.10 According to a review by Jeswani et al.,11 the absence of LUC GHG emissions and reduced soil GHG emissions make agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops suitable for producing low-AFCI fuels. Moreover, other studies have noted potential ecosystem service benefits if these feedstocks are grown on marginal lands.12
The vast majority of prior LCA studies on second generation biofuels (lignocellulosic feedstocks and technologies) via the bioconversion platform have focused on ethanol.13–19 Those studies demonstrated a significant reduction in life cycle GHG emissions relative to a petroleum-based gasoline baseline of 93 gCO2e MJ−1. The AFCI range for lignocellulosic ethanol depends on feedstock source and management practice, biofuel pre-treatment and conversion technology, and how co-products are treated. Previous studies have mostly concluded that lignocellulosic ethanol pathways sourced from agricultural residues (−25 to 40 gCO2e MJ−1)16,20 or dedicated energy crops like switchgrass (2 to 15 gCO2e MJ−1)19,21 and miscanthus (5 to 22 gCO2e MJ−1)22 grown on non-arable agricultural land or annual crops like biomass sorghum (25 to 60 gCO2e MJ−1)23,24 would meet policy objectives in the U.S. under select conditions. Studies have also found the potential for deep decarbonization as low as −179 gCO2e MJ−1 if coupling lignocellulosic ethanol production with bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS)23,25 and advanced ethanol conversion involving consolidated bioprocessing.26,27 However, ethanol has blend wall restrictions that limit its market expansion. In contrast, drop-in fuel for long-haul biofuel markets like aviation will continue to rise with the need to decarbonize the sector. Thus recent studies have examined both the cost and GHG emissions through LCA of promising emerging thermochemical and biochemical production to meet the SAF demand from biofuels. Reported GHG emission results for SAF production from thermochemical routes (e.g. FT synthesis and fast pyrolysis) range between −1.6 and 70 gCO2e MJ−1 jet fuel28–32 as compared to biochemical production routes (e.g. alcohol-to-jet and sugar-to-jet) of 12 to 90 gCO2e MJ−1 jet fuel.33–38Fig. 1 details a GHG comparison between recent SAF pathways for jet fuel production and includes the 80.1 gCO2e MJ−1 threshold for SAF eligible fuels according to CORSIA.10
Fig. 1 GHG intensity SAF pathway comparison to fuel conversion technology pathways: ATJ, HEFA fuels, FT synthesis, and STJ catalytic. a Han (2017),37 Gollakota (2021),39 Staples (2014),33 Budsberg (2016),34 Tanzil (2022).40b Cox (2014),38 Stratton (2011),41 de Jong (2017),42 Bailis (2010),15 Seber (2014).43c Shonnard (2010),44 de Jong (2017),42 Suresh (2018).29dRiazi (2018),35 Baral (2021).36e Han (2017),37 Cox (2014).38fSorunmu (2017),30 Elkasabi (2020),45 Fitriasari (2023).31 |
Chemical process simulations have been used for cost estimation of many early-stage industrial processes, including the conversion of biomass to fuels and value-added co-products.46 They help estimate the effect of variations in raw materials, changes in operational conditions, process configurations or scaling and integration of early-stage technology.47 These simulations provide the material and energy basis for LCA and technological and financial basis for TEA to evaluate production alternatives, including for the production of bio-jet fuel blendstock produced from biochemical35,36,48–50 and thermochemical31,32 conversion processes.
In this paper, we evaluate the cost and environmental tradeoffs of producing a bio-jet fuel capable of replacing current petroleum derived Jet-A fuel: 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO). Although without regulatory approval, DMCO, as a prospective jet fuel blendstock, has demonstrated enhanced gravimetric and volumetric net heats of combustion, surpassing conventional jet fuel by 2.4% and 9.2%, respectively.51 This improvement, which can be attributed to its cyclic structure and inherent ring strain, allows DMCO to be blended in high concentrations of jet fuel.52 Recent work by Walkling et al.53 tested a DMCO and conventional Jet A blend with a ratio of 10:90 and found that the blend satisfies all ASTM fuel standards for industry implementation. DMCO can be catalytically produced from an intermediate product of biomass, isoprene, and then converted to DMCO in two steps: dimerization and subsequent hydrogenation (Fig. 2). There are numerous routes to produce the intermediate product, isoprene. Industrially, isoprene is produced from petroleum sources as a by-product in naphtha cracking for the production of ethylene and is a monomer of natural rubber. Alternatively, it can be produced from sugars in Escherichia coli through a dual-pathway of the mevalonic acid (MVA) or methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) processes as shown by Yang et al.,54 who measured yields of 26.7 w/w%, the highest experimental yield to date, which equates to 26.7 g of isoprene synthesized per 100 g glucose.
Synthesizing fully infrastructure compatible (oxygen-free) fuel via metabolic pathways is challenging due to the oxygen present in the carbohydrate substrate. Thus, fermenting an oxygen-free molecule from five- and six-carbon sugars while retaining most carbon atoms from the sugar could be a key step in the synthesis route. Isoprene is a promising molecule for attaining this objective.55 Rosenkoetter et al.51 investigated the selective dimerization of isoprene over an Fe(II) catalyst to produce DMCOD, which can be further hydrogenated to produce DMCO, a high-performance bio-based jet fuel that could meet SAF criteria. Previous research35,36,48 has examined the production of isoprene through indirect fermentation of methyl-butyl-ether fermented from cellulose and hemicellulose sugars with isoprene yields from dehydration of isoprenol of 10.2 to 21.5 g per 100 g of glucose, lower than the direct fermentation yield of 26.7 g isoprene. Yang et al.54 demonstrated the direct fermentation to isoprene from sugars using metabolically engineered E. coli. If scaled, the technology can yield oxygen-free reaction intermediates (isoprene) that can be upgraded to produce infrastructure compatible bio-jet while bypassing the alcohol conversion step. Batten et al.56 evaluated the life cycle global warming differences between DMCO produced from direct fermentation of sugars derived from corn and concluded that land use change could limit deep decarbonization goals if not combined with carbon capture and sequestration processes. That limitation may be overcome if using lignocellulose as feedstock.
Our objective is to investigate the potential for reducing GHG emissions and evaluate costs in the aviation fuel industry by using corn stover feedstock, a lignocellulosic agricultural residue, in biorefineries to convert sugars to renewable jet fuel (DMCO). Riazi et al.35 and Baral et al.36 previously studied the indirect pathways to producing DMCO via dehydration of isoprenol using agricultural residues and purpose grown crops, respectively. Here, we examine the direct fermentation of isoprene from sugars derived from abundant agricultural residues (corn stover) in the U.S. Midwest and subsequent dimerization of isoprene to DMCOD and its conversion to high energy density DMCO through hydrogenation.
After the corn stover is brought to the biorefinery, pre-treatment and hydrolysis are carried out. Previous studies16,35 were used for these steps assuming dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis.62 The lignin portion of the feedstock is assumed to be fractionated after pretreatment and combusted to generate electricity and steam onsite providing the energy required for the biorefinery similar to prior LCA models13,14 and chemical process simulations.62 The electricity generated is surplus to the operational needs of the biorefinery, providing an electricity credit that is assumed sold to the electricity grid, reducing the environmental and economic impact of the process.21,64 The Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO) electricity grid, which supplies electricity to Iowa, is used for all LCA calculations.
The fermenter, operating under aerobic conditions, was modelled using UniSim chemical process simulation.63 Dextrose, a native UniSim component, that has been used to model 6 carbon sugars was used as a feed along with air to supply oxygen. The feed temperature was considered at room temperature of 20 °C to match the average yearly temperature in Iowa, US. The direct fermentation (DF) using genetically engineered E. coli converts sugar to isoprene using parameter conditions outlined in the dual MEP/MVA pathway54 according to stoichiometry (Fig. 3).
The fermentation process was modeled based on pilot-scale experiments operating on a 100 L reactor at Technology Holding LLC laboratories to determine the initial operating parameters and ensure that isoprene production is maintained in an environment to maximize its yield. Isoprene yields used in the process simulation and LCI are taken from experiments on the 100 L reactor and scaled-up through process simulation. The energy requirements for fermentation are dominated by the heat required to raise the feed temperature (20 °C) to the reactor temperature (35 °C). The fermenter reactor temperature was set at 35 °C as isoprene changes to the vapor phase at 34.1 °C.65 Using data from fermentation experiments, the heat duty required for this step is calculated using optimized process simulation in the UniSim design suite.63 Direct CO2 emissions from the fermentation step are calculated using the net stoichiometric fermentation reaction (Fig. 3). Total GHG emissions of bio-conversion are related to biogenic carbon uptake by the feedstock along with boiler lignin combustion and fuel combustion, and are balanced by the CO2 uptake during plant growth and are assumed to be netted out to zero. After exiting the fermenter, isoprene is recovered via a condenser and flash separator. The condenser modeling allows for heat duty calculations; however, in the refinery alternative equipment such as a gas absorption unit may be used to separate CO2 and vapor impurities from the isoprene gas.
Inlet feed stream temperatures and reactor temperature were set at 20 °C and 35 °C to concur with previous studies.35,54 Isoprene has a boiling point of 34.1 °C and the reaction proceeds to allow dilute isoprene in the tops product. The rate of production of isoprene is considered as 1 kg of isoprene in a 1000 L reactor formed in 1 hour according to a titer value of 60 g L−1 broth.55 A feed of 3.54 kg input of sugars is required to produce 1 kg of isoprene. The fermenter product stream consists of 26.7% isoprene by mass and the recovery of isoprene is modelled in UniSim with a condenser unit process. A small distillation duty is incorporated from the downstream cooling of DMCO. The UniSim model provided mass and energy balances required for the LCI model.
The DMCOD product stream is then fed to the hydrogenator with 2 mol of hydrogen for every mol of DMCOD using a nickel catalyst at 1% w/w loading. Atmospheric hydrogen is compressed to 10 bar and fed to the hydrogenator. The hydrogenation step takes place at 177 °C and the exit gas stream of DMCO is cooled for storage by process cooling water. An 80% heat recovery from the cooling of DMCO for pre-heating the inlet streams of the hydrogenator is applied. The majority of the hydrogen is reclaimed and returned to the hydrogenation unit. Section 2.4 will discuss sensitivity for the catalytic upgrading steps.
It is assumed that all utility steps are supplied by combustion of the lignin by-product in the pre-treatment step and a surplus of electricity supply to the grid has been calculated, which is assumed to offset emissions using system expansion credits. The effect of catalysts on the biofuel's life-cycle GHG emissions hinges on their production emissions and consumption rate. Some catalysts, despite a high production GHG footprint, can have minimal impact if they last long and have low consumption rates, especially in a farm-to-wheels context. RANEY® nickel catalysts used in this process are considered to have an influence on the life-cycle GHG emissions of biofuels and therefore sensitivity for catalyst loading in the overall lifecycle is included.66 Based on Dros et al.(2015)67 the following best, worst and base case sensitivities were considered for the catalyst recovery loading:
(1) Best case: low catalyst loss 0.1 g per kg DMCO.
(2) Worst case: high catalyst loss 5 g per kg DMCO.
(3) Base case: 1 g per kg DMCO.
Previous findings have shown that transporting sugar with a conventional diesel-powered truck increases its GHG footprint, contributing to a 4.4 gCO2e MJ−1 per 100 km increase in the current technological state and a 1.7 gCO2e MJ−1 per 100 km increase in the optimal future case.36 We use a conservative value of 2 gCO2e MJ−1 to cover the return journeys of GHG emission feedstock transportation and an additional 5 gCO2e MJ−1 for the worst case catalyst make-up scenario.35,67
Item | Scale |
---|---|
Plant life | 30 years |
Internal rate of return | 5% |
Plant depreciation | 200% declining balance (DDB) |
Plant recovery period | 7 years |
Vapor plant depreciation | 150% DB |
Vapor plant recovery period | 20 years |
Taxes | 21% |
Financing | 40% |
Loan terms | 10 years, 8% interest |
Construction time | 3 years |
First year expenditure | 8% |
Second year expenditure | 60% |
Third year expenditure | 32% |
Working capital | 5% of fixed capital investment |
Start-up time | 3 months |
Revenues during start-up | 50% |
Variable costs during start-up | 75% |
Fixed costs during start-up | 100% |
The UniSim process simulation results were used to establish variable operating requirements associated with raw materials, waste management, electricity requirement, and process byproducts. While the economic analysis maintains a majority of cost assumptions used by Humbird et al. (2011)62 several changes were made to the model to account for the downstream catalytic upgrading to DMCO. We assume a conservative value for hydrogen supply of $1.61 per kg.68 These changes are summarized in Table 2.
Fig. 4 GHG emissions of corn stover to DMCO expressed in gCO2 MJ−1 DMCO, including best case, H2 supply and catalyst loading sensitivity. a Riazi et al. (2018).35b Baral et al. (2021).36c Batten et al. (2023).56d Prussi et al. (2021).10 89 CO2e MJ−1 petroleum jet. |
Life cycle component | Baseline | H2 supply | Catalyst make-up |
---|---|---|---|
Harvest | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
Nutrient replacement | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
Soil N2O emission | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
Change in soil carbon | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
Biogenic carbon | −189.6 | −189.6 | −189.6 |
Feedstock transport | 2.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 |
Pretreatment | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
Chemicals | 2.0 | 12.1 | 8.9 |
Fermentation | 36.9 | 36.9 | 36.9 |
Boiler | 82.9 | 82.9 | 82.9 |
Electricity | −47.1 | −47.1 | −47.1 |
Jet fuel combustion | 71.6 | 71.6 | 71.6 |
Jet fuel credit | −7.9 | −7.9 | −7.9 |
Total | 7.2 | 15.6 | 16.3 |
Combustion of the jet fuel has been included to represent the well-to-wake model and allow for comparison to previous pathways for jet fuel production from biomass sources. Pathways similar to this study that involved production of renewable jet fuel with catalytic upgrading (DMCOD and DMCO) are included in Fig. 4 from Riazi et al.35 of 14.9 gCO2e MJ−1 DMCO and Baral et al.'s36 range of 18.3–61 gCO2e MJ−1 DMCO. Major differences in life cycle emissions are attributed to the feedstock source. For example, Baral et al.36 examined the use of biomass sorghum, which is a dedicated annual crop that requires a large annual input of nutrients to attain high annual yield, whereas agricultural residues assumed here and in the work by Riazi et al.35 would require significantly lower nutrient replacement quantities, but would also involve SOC loss, which raises GHG emissions. The work by Riazi et al.19 only modeled indirect fermentation to DMCOD, the pre-hydrogenation jet fuel blendstock. However, the value of 14.9 gCO2e incorporates the hydrogenation step modeled in the current work and the sensitivity includes upper and lower bounds (10.1 to 26.2 gCO2e) based on parameters that could affect life cycle GHG emission results. The CORSIA baseline for petroleum jet GHG emissions (89 gCO2e) includes crude oil recovery, transportation and refining, jet fuel transportation, and jet fuel combustion.2 Prior literature37 reported a benchmark of petroleum jet of 85 gCO2e MJ−1 petroleum jet fuel that included 12.4 gCO2e and 72.9 gCO2e for well-to-pump and pump-to-wake, respectively.
The GHG emissions have greater savings than previous studies involving the indirect fermentation to 1-methyl-3-butenol35,36 and confirm the engineering logic that by removing process units through process intensification, the environmental impact, in this case GHG emissions, would decrease overall. Table 3 outlines the results shown in Fig. 4.
In the corn stover-to-DMCO pathway, DMCO achieves GHG emissions savings relative to current petroleum jet. The corn stover feedstock is used to make DMCO jet fuel that is converted into fuel with a small penalty (25.5 gCO2e MJ−1) related to SOC loss (Table 3). This results in a relatively low GHG footprint per unit of lignocellulosic sugar and consequently a modest GHG benefit from increased sugar-to-fuel yields. Biogenic CO2 is defined as CO2 emissions directly resulting from combustion, decomposition, or processing of biologically based materials other than fossil fuels, peat, and mineral sources of carbon through combustion, digestion, fermentation, or decomposition processes. Here it is calculated according to the carbon in the feedstock that has been removed through harvesting the corn stover.
To further reduce net GHG contributions, the 60% yield of feedstock to sugar must be improved as this would increase yields in the final fuel product. Improved yields arising from dilute acid pre-treatment have been shown to reach as high as 66.8%.74 However, the 40% of biomass that is removed during pre-fermentation processes (pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysis) is mostly used in the production of steam and electricity in the lignin boiler. This use of renewable biomass originating in the feedstock translates into a GHG emissions credit from displaced electricity from the regional electricity grid. This electricity credit is calculated from the surplus electricity sold back to the grid. Yet, this credit is uncertain; in particular, as regional electricity grids decarbonize, the credit will also decline and in the worst case, it could displace current marginal sources of electricity supplied from other renewable sources. Thus, in the long term, such a pronounced electricity credit (−47 gCO2e MJ−1) will reach a lower limit that would raise the net AFCI of a fuel like DMCO. The jet-fuel credit calculation of −7.9 gCO2e MJ−1 DMCO is based on the improved net heat of combustion as compared to the minimum requirements for jet-A fuel according to ATSM standards. A sample calculation is given in the ESI.†
Table S7† gives a comparative analysis of various biofuel pathways including alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), HEFA fuels, FT synthesis, STJ catalytic upgrading, STJ direct sugar biological to hydrocarbons, and fast pyrolysis. DMCO, produced from an STJ catalytic upgrading pathway, emerges as a highly promising jet fuel. The environmental performance underscores the potential of DMCO as a sustainable alternative for current aviation fuels, demonstrating an opportunity to reduce carbon emissions in the aviation sector.
The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of DMCO jet-fuel computed from the TEA is $1.16 per litre ±0.16. This is representative according to a breakeven net present value of 0 to the biorefinery capital and operational costs over a 30 year lifetime. Generally, this value is in the range for novel technology and is not far from NREL's reporting values for ethanol production. Jet-fuel prices today are on the rise in the post-COVID-19 era and the price has increased to $0.87 per L ($3.28 per gallon) from $0.51 per L ($1.91 per gallon) since January 2019 (Fig. S1†).75 If these rising trends continue, biomass-to-DMCO through the direct fermentation pathway of isoprene may become competitive with petroleum jet-fuel. In addition to this, the MFSP is mainly affected by the biorefinery yield and cost of feedstock. Sorunmu et al.30 examined a range of bio-jet fuels that could be competitive with a social cost of carbon as high as 200 USD per ton CO2; this would further render the DMCO route competitive.
The most recent TEA reporting related to this process was done by Baral et al. (2021)36 who looked at a similar pathway for DMCO production from sorghum biomass. It was reported at the current state of technology of $9 per L DMCO jet fuel and best-case scenario of $1.5 per L DMCO jet fuel when considering optimal conditions and using a similar Ni catalyst to that employed in this research. This reduction in cost can be attributed to the indirect fermentation pathway that they considered from Riazi et al.35 of the intermediate compound 1-methyl-3-butanol. This indirect fermentation pathway requires two additional steps post-fermentation already mentioned in the life cycle assessment of separation and dehydrogenation before isoprene can be dimerized to DMCOD and subsequently hydrogenated to DMCO. Additionally, annual crops such as biomass sorghum can raise the feedstock supply cost by up to $115 per tonne23 as can alternative pre-treatments (e.g. integrated high-gravity ionic liquid) that produce higher sugar yields but at a higher cost compared to dilute-acid pretreatment for corn stover.
For a closer comparison, NREL's 2016 technical report estimated a sugar-to-hydrocarbon fuel (jet fuel precursor) MFSP in the range of $1 to 2.4 per L Jet Aeq with an average value of $1.5 per L Jet Aeq.76 The actual cost for jet fuel would be higher given that not all hydrocarbons have the desired chain length to meet jet fuel standards. For example, Jet A-1 typically has hydrocarbons with carbon chain lengths in the C9 to C16 range. Hydrocarbons that are too short (e.g., methane or ethane) or too long (e.g., heavy waxes) are not suitable for jet fuel. When producing jet fuel from feedstocks like biomass or waste oils, not all of the hydrocarbons present may meet these stringent requirements. Therefore, additional refining, upgrading, or treatment processes are often needed to ensure that the final product meets aviation fuel standards. These processes can add complexity and cost to the production of jet fuel, making it more expensive than simply converting all hydrocarbons in a feedstock into jet fuel. Lundberg et al.77 conducted an economic analysis on the minimum selling price (MSP) of isoprene, the intermediate compound for producing DMCO. The significant cost associated with mesaconic acid in Lundberg's system played a pivotal role in the high price of isoprene production. Using this different bio-sourced pathway to produce isoprene, the MSP of isoprene was evaluated at $4.07 per kg ($2.89 per L). This research pathway reduces large costs in purchasing the raw material in the indirect fermentation pathway to isoprene of mesaconic acid, and thus can result in a better economic outcome for DMCO production.
The enzyme cost contribution modeled here is lower than expected for an enzyme preparation purchased from a separate, non-adjacent production facility. Transportation of the enzyme to the biorefinery facility adds to enzyme costs, even if production costs could be reduced. Here, by adding the enzyme production facility to the biorefinery, certain infrastructure can be shared (e.g. utilities and buildings) that can further reduce overall cost.68
Feedstock cost can have a large effect on the total production costs and can increase or decrease over time depending on technological developments and market fluctuations.78,79 Our results show it is by far the single most influential parameter in determining the minimum selling price of DMCO. A single variable sensitivity analysis was carried out increasing the cost of feedstock and handling at $5 increments shown in Fig. 7. For every $5 increment added to the feedstock price, an addition of 9 cents to the MFSP can be seen. The feedstock could be sourced from commercial sugars; however, additional investigation may be warranted in the near future to estimate economic feasibility.
The dimerization step involves a catalyst that has an optimal case cost of $10.26 per kg (13% wt).36 Both the dimerization and hydrogenation steps require more in-depth research to ensure estimated high yields, and catalyst recovery and selectivity can reduce the stage costs. A heterogeneous catalyst with a long lifetime could reduce costs and a single variable sensitivity analysis was carried out to examine the effect of underestimated catalyst cost on MFSP (Fig. 6).
The sensitivity of the nine model parameters tested on MFSP is considered in the TEA and is illustrated in Fig. 6 and compared with literature estimates of bio-jet fuel from biochemical and thermochemical technological platforms (Fig. 6). The upper and lower bounds in the sensitivity analysis were chosen using prior literature68,71 and engineering logic. Fig. 6 shows that the annual catalyst cost has the greatest effect on the MFSP. The sensitivity of hydrogen and catalyst supply on life cycle GHG impact (Fig. 4) showed little variance; however, these parameters strongly affect process economics (Fig. 6). The hydrogen production supply has been shown in terms of the minimum required to begin the hydrogenation reaction and make-up hydrogen if needed in the recycle stream. The sensitivity analysis showed that an additional 5% of hydrogen supplied in the hydrogenation stage affects the MFSP with an increase of 2 cents per L. A transition to green hydrogen supply by 2050 could reduce these costs further with current projected optimistic and pessimistic values of $0.65–$1.25 USD per kg hydrogen, respectively.80
The main contributors to variable costs were feedstock ($0.36 per litre), catalytic upgrading ($0.22 per litre) and enzyme hydrolysis with fermentation ($0.16 per litre). It is possible in the future that the cost of feedstock supply to biorefineries would decrease as it is the single most influential parameter in determining the MSP of DMCO. However, it is more feasible to consider optimizing the process areas of the biorefinery to reduce operating costs and MFSP. The catalytic upgrading and hydrogenation area in the biorefinery are a challenge as a result of high catalyst costs. These steps require additional research to ensure high yield and selectivity to lower the loading requirements of the metal catalyst. This will reduce the upfront catalyst and catalytic upgrading costs, in this case the iron and RANEY® Ni catalysts where prices were $10.26 per kg and $14.5 per kg, respectively. These catalysts were assumed to give isoprene-to-DMCOD and DMCOD-to-DMCO conversion yields of 98%. A reduction in the yields would provide sensitivity in the real viability of the process. For improvement in the fermentation step, optimizing the titer rate and yield for direct fermentation to isoprene could yield better results.55 These coincide with many TEA fuel analyses derived from biomass (Fig. 7).
Fig. 7 shows the MFSP contrast of DMCO production to other jet fuel pathways derived from biomass feedstock and demonstrates similar economic viability in terms of price. While the costs of producing fuels from biomass feedstock can be influenced by factors such as feedstock availability, processing technologies, and market demand, DMCO stands out as a promising alternative due to its specific suitability for the aviation industry. DMCO's cyclic structure and molecular branching give it appropriate fuel properties, with a density of 0.827 kg L−1 (6.7% higher than Jet A) and a gravimetric net heat of combustion at 43.82 MJ kg−1 (2.4% higher than Jet A). Its volumetric net heat of combustion is 36.22 MJ L−1 (9.2% greater than Jet A).51 With additional refining processes and strict adherence to aviation specifications, DMCO could ensure similar performance and safety in aircraft engines. These refined qualities, combined with efficient production and distribution systems, contribute to DMCO's competitiveness in terms of its minimum selling price when compared to other fuels derived from biomass feedstock. DMCO can potentially and cost-effectively meet the need for high performance and environmentally sustainable alternative jet fuel.
Finally, within the SAF framework, tax rate incentives can be used as a financial tool for short and medium-term policy measures to incentivize the aviation market.81 In the context of environmental policies, including those aimed at reducing carbon emissions, implementing tax schemes can be an effective strategy to drive immediate market responses.82 Imposing higher taxes on the aviation industry can encourage airlines to adopt cleaner fuels. However, it is essential to recognize the limitations of tax rates as a long-term solution for considered sustainable fuels. While they can drive short-term changes, relying solely on a tax incentive may not ensure the sustained viability of the introduction of SAFs. Long-term success often requires a more comprehensive approach, involving regulatory frameworks, technological innovation, and industry collaboration.83 In a decarbonized aviation world, reduced tax rates may have limited relevance. Today they can help spur a transition towards cleaner energy sources, like adopting low GHG impact fuels like DMCO, to meet goals for greener aviation. Dependence on tax incentives alone may not provide the necessary foundation for the sustained growth and viability of decarbonization efforts.
Footnote |
† Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: https://doi.org/10.1039/d3se01470c |
This journal is © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2024 |