Issue 6, 2015

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh

Abstract

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

Graphical abstract: Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh

Article information

Article type
Paper
Submitted
15 noy 2014
Accepted
04 fev 2015
First published
05 fev 2015

Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts, 2015,17, 1082-1097

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh

P. G. Whitehead, S. Sarkar, L. Jin, M. N. Futter, J. Caesar, E. Barbour, D. Butterfield, R. Sinha, R. Nicholls, C. Hutton and H. D. Leckie, Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts, 2015, 17, 1082 DOI: 10.1039/C4EM00616J

To request permission to reproduce material from this article, please go to the Copyright Clearance Center request page.

If you are an author contributing to an RSC publication, you do not need to request permission provided correct acknowledgement is given.

If you are the author of this article, you do not need to request permission to reproduce figures and diagrams provided correct acknowledgement is given. If you want to reproduce the whole article in a third-party publication (excluding your thesis/dissertation for which permission is not required) please go to the Copyright Clearance Center request page.

Read more about how to correctly acknowledge RSC content.

Social activity

Spotlight

Advertisements