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Vehicle Emissions of Short-lived and Long-lived Climate Forcers: Trends and Tradeoffs

Abstract

Selecting technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). We present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030 and discuss past and prospective future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emissions reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO2 technologies are significantly higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO2.

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Publication details

The article was received on 10 Feb 2017, accepted on 28 Mar 2017 and first published on 28 Mar 2017


Article type: Paper
DOI: 10.1039/C7FD00063D
Citation: Faraday Discuss., 2017, Accepted Manuscript
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    Vehicle Emissions of Short-lived and Long-lived Climate Forcers: Trends and Tradeoffs

    M. R. Edwards, M. M. Klemun, H. C. Kim, T. J. Wallington, S. L. Winkler, M. A. Tamor and J. E. Trancik, Faraday Discuss., 2017, Accepted Manuscript , DOI: 10.1039/C7FD00063D

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