Spatial uncertainty of joint health risk of multiple trace metals in rice grain in Jiaxing city, China

Abstract

Trace metals in rice may affect human health if their concentrations reach risk levels in the human body due to long-term ingestion. In this study, concentrations of five trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn) in field-sampled rice grains were measured at 285 sampling sites in Jiaxing city, China. The objective was to map the spatial distribution and uncertainty of the potential human health risk of trace metals in local rice grains at a regional scale. The probability map of multiple trace metals that tend to be hazardous was produced based on the permissible limits in Chinese National Standards. It showed higher probabilities, which exceeded the national standards, for one or more of trace metals in rice grains were mainly located in several small subareas around the center of the study area. We used the Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) index and the Total THQ (TTHQ) index to represent the potential human health risks caused by individual and multiple trace metals in local rice grains. The TTHQ was essentially regarded as an integrative uniform rice quality index in this study. Stochastic simulation was then conducted to simulate the TTHQ for mapping the spatial distribution and uncertainty of the total potential health risk. Probability maps of different risk grades for TTHQ indicated that most places were in unsafe grades. In general, maps of site-specific health risks posed by trace metals in local rice grains and associated uncertainty information are valuable to spatial decision making in agricultural planning, rice uses, and environmental management.